Hi all, took a bit of an ass-kicking last week when my high-risk 3-team round-robin teasers bit the dust, going 1-5, losing 9 Units in the process, which was the amount of Units I ended up down for the week. I've had weeks where these have swept the board, so I took my lumps with the Man's money, at least! YTD 67.5-56.5-1 for +9 Units (still up a fair share from the first few weeks I didn't post and did very well, lol).
Lines and Value for this week
Away Team__PS___My PS__Value
Home Team_Total_MyTotal__Value
Bengals__+11__+10.59__Bengals .41 Value
Patriots___44___45.25___Over 1.25 Value
With the Bengals improved offense and Corey Dillon running against their softish D. to set up the pass, I like this one to go Over.
Browns__+11__+6.65__Browns 4.35 Value
Bills______38___39.17__Over 1.17 Value
Offensive injuries and an inexperienced QB make the Browns a questionable play against the improving, but still inconsistent Bills. I'll probably play the Browns in a 2 team teaser at some point, as I don't see the Bills blowing them out (barring defense and special teams TD's).
Giants___+11__+11.08__Ravens .08 Value
Ravens___33.5__35.24__Over 2.76 Value
Will the Giants score double digits in this game? Anyone seen a prop bet on that, lol? The Giants have no defensive line right now which should give an easy victory to the Ravens with a probable Over.
Lions___+9.5__+6.34__Lions 3.16 Value
Packers__45____44.47_Under .53 Value
That Jones kid can sure run the ball and Harrington should have some success heaving the ball against the Packers. Don't look for a repeat score of their earlier meeting, but how well will the Lions play at Lambeau? If I can get them at +10 somewhere other than BoDog, I may make a 1 Unit bet on them.
Seahawks__+6.5__+8.3__Vikings 1.8 Value
Vikings_____51___48____Under 3.0 Value
If the Vikings had only won last week, it would have been a 12 Unit swing for me, so they're in my bankroll doghouse right now. How lousy have the Seahawks been? With even more injuries to their receiving corps, they might have to line up 2 backs and 3 tight ends in this one. You'd really think the Vikings should win this one, but you know how the Vikings are late in the season...
Dolphins__+11.5__+12.24__Broncos .74 Value
Broncos___38.5___37.68___Under .84 Value
The Broncos D. should keep the Dolphins O. under their thumbs, so Plummer should be able to win this one even with his usual mistakes.
Raiders__+7.5__+8.05__Falcons .55 Value
Falcons___46___43.49__Under 2.51 Value
Raiders lose more offense with Curry out for the season, Wheatley back to being injured. Even the Raiders defense may be able to confuse Vick a little bit. This total has been rising, I would imagine just because the Raiders have been in a few high-scoring games, and people not remembering games like the 6-3 Falcons game earlier in the season. If the Total hits 46.5, I'll probably put a Unit on the Under and hope for more Falcon Red Zone turnovers
Bears___+7.5__+9.65__Jaguars 2.15 Value
Jaguars__34____33.36__Under .64 Value
Hutchinson will be hard pressed to duplicate his aerial success of last week versus the Jaguars. I played the Jaguars when they opened at -7.
Saints___+7.5__+2.45__Saints 4.55 Value
Cowboys__48___46.99__Under 1.01 Value
How quickly the Cowboys go from being 7 point dogs to 7 point favorites! Granted,the Saints have been as consistent as pancake batter, but I'll take the points. Julius Jones, though, what a stud he has been! I posted a play on the Over in this game when it opened at 46.5, and the value got sucked out of it within a day.
Colts___-10.5__-6.92__Texans 4.58 Value
Texans__56.5___52.76_Under 3.74 Value
This is a game where my computer, in spite of my nudgings, is a little consersative in it's estimations. I wouldn't play the Texans here, but they may make it a game and cover the spread if Carr and Co. can find a way to get back on track versus a Colts D. that can be scored upon. The Over may connect before the end of the 3rd Q., so I would stay away from the Under. The Colts are on such a roll right now, I'm just gonna sit back and hope they win by at least a field goal to cover a teaser.
Jets_____+6__+1.66__Jets 4.34 Value
Steelers__36___38.7___Over 2.7 Value
It's been argued at length in this forum, but I think the Jets are a little undervalued and the Steelers a little overvalued in the public's eye. The Jets, in spite of John Abraham's absense this week, are still a healthier team then the Steelers and shouldn't lose by more than a FG in this one.
Rams____+6.5___+9.74__Panthers 3.24 Value
Panthers__44_____43.11__Under .89 Value
After seeing that Faulk will likely sit out again and S. Jackson is questionable, let alone Bulger being out, the Rams O. is going to being playing uphill in this one against a Carolina team that is starting to win with the personnel left over from their early season injuries. Damn, that was a run-on sentence if I've ever written one! I'm adding Carolina as a 1 Unit play.
49ers___+7__+9.31__Cards +2.31 Value
Cards___37___35.89__Under 1.11 Value
Dorsey starting and Barlow being out for the 49ers should give the Cards the cover, considering the 49ers still are very injured on the defensive side of the ball. McCown back in at QB for the Cards will fire up the home crowd and probably the team a little, as well.
Bucs____+5__+7.64__Chargers 2.64 Value
Chargers__43__41.82__Under 1.18 Value
After updating and tweaking the line, I'm going to have to drop the Chargers from a 1.5 to a 1 Unit play.
Eagles___-9__-6.74__Redskins 2.26 Value
Redskins_37.5_38.85_Over 1.35 Value
Hard to bet against the Eagles right now, but the Redskins D. could keep them in the game and scoop up a cover. This line hasn't moved in the Eagles direction, so I guess people aren't expecting a repeat of the previous encounter.
Chiefs__+2__-4.46__Chiefs 6.46 Value
Titans___52__50.69__Under 1.31 Value
Any time I get a Total within a point of the actual spread when it's over 50 points, I like the Over. My reasons for backing my computer's selection of the Chiefs to pull the upset in this one are posted as a reply in my Week 14 plays thread.
Recap of my plays--all plays posted at the time they were bought with widely availabe lines.
TOP PLAYS
3 Team 10 Point Teaser
Pats-1/Den-1/Jets+15.5 3 Units
2 Team 7 Point Teaser
Balt-2.5/Colts-3 2 Units
2ndary Plays
Balt/NYG Over 32.5 1.5 Units
Chiefs +2 1.5 Units
KC/Ten Over 52 1 Unit
Jaguars -7 1 Unit
Chargers -5 1 Unit
Panthers -6.5 1 Unit
NE/Cincy Over 44 1 Unit
Saints +7 1 Unit
NO/Dallas Over 46.5 1 Unit
Pitt/NYJ Over 35.5 1 Unit
GL and have a great week.
Lines and Value for this week
Away Team__PS___My PS__Value
Home Team_Total_MyTotal__Value
Bengals__+11__+10.59__Bengals .41 Value
Patriots___44___45.25___Over 1.25 Value
With the Bengals improved offense and Corey Dillon running against their softish D. to set up the pass, I like this one to go Over.
Browns__+11__+6.65__Browns 4.35 Value
Bills______38___39.17__Over 1.17 Value
Offensive injuries and an inexperienced QB make the Browns a questionable play against the improving, but still inconsistent Bills. I'll probably play the Browns in a 2 team teaser at some point, as I don't see the Bills blowing them out (barring defense and special teams TD's).
Giants___+11__+11.08__Ravens .08 Value
Ravens___33.5__35.24__Over 2.76 Value
Will the Giants score double digits in this game? Anyone seen a prop bet on that, lol? The Giants have no defensive line right now which should give an easy victory to the Ravens with a probable Over.
Lions___+9.5__+6.34__Lions 3.16 Value
Packers__45____44.47_Under .53 Value
That Jones kid can sure run the ball and Harrington should have some success heaving the ball against the Packers. Don't look for a repeat score of their earlier meeting, but how well will the Lions play at Lambeau? If I can get them at +10 somewhere other than BoDog, I may make a 1 Unit bet on them.
Seahawks__+6.5__+8.3__Vikings 1.8 Value
Vikings_____51___48____Under 3.0 Value
If the Vikings had only won last week, it would have been a 12 Unit swing for me, so they're in my bankroll doghouse right now. How lousy have the Seahawks been? With even more injuries to their receiving corps, they might have to line up 2 backs and 3 tight ends in this one. You'd really think the Vikings should win this one, but you know how the Vikings are late in the season...
Dolphins__+11.5__+12.24__Broncos .74 Value
Broncos___38.5___37.68___Under .84 Value
The Broncos D. should keep the Dolphins O. under their thumbs, so Plummer should be able to win this one even with his usual mistakes.
Raiders__+7.5__+8.05__Falcons .55 Value
Falcons___46___43.49__Under 2.51 Value
Raiders lose more offense with Curry out for the season, Wheatley back to being injured. Even the Raiders defense may be able to confuse Vick a little bit. This total has been rising, I would imagine just because the Raiders have been in a few high-scoring games, and people not remembering games like the 6-3 Falcons game earlier in the season. If the Total hits 46.5, I'll probably put a Unit on the Under and hope for more Falcon Red Zone turnovers
Bears___+7.5__+9.65__Jaguars 2.15 Value
Jaguars__34____33.36__Under .64 Value
Hutchinson will be hard pressed to duplicate his aerial success of last week versus the Jaguars. I played the Jaguars when they opened at -7.
Saints___+7.5__+2.45__Saints 4.55 Value
Cowboys__48___46.99__Under 1.01 Value
How quickly the Cowboys go from being 7 point dogs to 7 point favorites! Granted,the Saints have been as consistent as pancake batter, but I'll take the points. Julius Jones, though, what a stud he has been! I posted a play on the Over in this game when it opened at 46.5, and the value got sucked out of it within a day.
Colts___-10.5__-6.92__Texans 4.58 Value
Texans__56.5___52.76_Under 3.74 Value
This is a game where my computer, in spite of my nudgings, is a little consersative in it's estimations. I wouldn't play the Texans here, but they may make it a game and cover the spread if Carr and Co. can find a way to get back on track versus a Colts D. that can be scored upon. The Over may connect before the end of the 3rd Q., so I would stay away from the Under. The Colts are on such a roll right now, I'm just gonna sit back and hope they win by at least a field goal to cover a teaser.
Jets_____+6__+1.66__Jets 4.34 Value
Steelers__36___38.7___Over 2.7 Value
It's been argued at length in this forum, but I think the Jets are a little undervalued and the Steelers a little overvalued in the public's eye. The Jets, in spite of John Abraham's absense this week, are still a healthier team then the Steelers and shouldn't lose by more than a FG in this one.
Rams____+6.5___+9.74__Panthers 3.24 Value
Panthers__44_____43.11__Under .89 Value
After seeing that Faulk will likely sit out again and S. Jackson is questionable, let alone Bulger being out, the Rams O. is going to being playing uphill in this one against a Carolina team that is starting to win with the personnel left over from their early season injuries. Damn, that was a run-on sentence if I've ever written one! I'm adding Carolina as a 1 Unit play.
49ers___+7__+9.31__Cards +2.31 Value
Cards___37___35.89__Under 1.11 Value
Dorsey starting and Barlow being out for the 49ers should give the Cards the cover, considering the 49ers still are very injured on the defensive side of the ball. McCown back in at QB for the Cards will fire up the home crowd and probably the team a little, as well.
Bucs____+5__+7.64__Chargers 2.64 Value
Chargers__43__41.82__Under 1.18 Value
After updating and tweaking the line, I'm going to have to drop the Chargers from a 1.5 to a 1 Unit play.
Eagles___-9__-6.74__Redskins 2.26 Value
Redskins_37.5_38.85_Over 1.35 Value
Hard to bet against the Eagles right now, but the Redskins D. could keep them in the game and scoop up a cover. This line hasn't moved in the Eagles direction, so I guess people aren't expecting a repeat of the previous encounter.
Chiefs__+2__-4.46__Chiefs 6.46 Value
Titans___52__50.69__Under 1.31 Value
Any time I get a Total within a point of the actual spread when it's over 50 points, I like the Over. My reasons for backing my computer's selection of the Chiefs to pull the upset in this one are posted as a reply in my Week 14 plays thread.
Recap of my plays--all plays posted at the time they were bought with widely availabe lines.
TOP PLAYS
3 Team 10 Point Teaser
Pats-1/Den-1/Jets+15.5 3 Units
2 Team 7 Point Teaser
Balt-2.5/Colts-3 2 Units
2ndary Plays
Balt/NYG Over 32.5 1.5 Units
Chiefs +2 1.5 Units
KC/Ten Over 52 1 Unit
Jaguars -7 1 Unit
Chargers -5 1 Unit
Panthers -6.5 1 Unit
NE/Cincy Over 44 1 Unit
Saints +7 1 Unit
NO/Dallas Over 46.5 1 Unit
Pitt/NYJ Over 35.5 1 Unit
GL and have a great week.
